by Patrick Burns.
Abstract: We report on a study of the ability of analysts to distinguish an actual price series of an equity from random alternatives. Virtually all of the statistical tests on the results support the hypothesis that no skill was exhibited in selecting the correct response. Many of the analysts were extremely over-confident about their ability to select correct answers. The one area where it seems skill might have been exhibited is in the selection of correct answers that happened to be far from the random choices.
jun 25, 26
How to have a better chance of a good outcome. Making mistakes There’s been a lot of talk recently about data analysis problems with spreadsheets. If you’ve not stuck your [...]
jun 25, 26
The AllTrials campaign is pushing for all data on drug trials to be made public -- see the campaign statement. If the public has all the evidence rather than a [...]
jun 25, 26
Here is an interview with Ron Hochreiter, Assistant Professor at WU Vienna University Economics and Business. In 25 words or less tell us what you do (using German words is [...]